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1. Where, on the basis of its assessment of the draft integrated national energy and climate plans pursuant to Article 9 or its assessment of the draft updates of the final plans pursuant to Article 14, and as part of the iterative process, the Commission concludes that the objectives, targets and contributions of the Member States are insufficient for the collective achievement of the Energy Union objectives and in particular, for the first ten-year period, for the Union's binding 2030 target for renewable energy and the Union's 2030 target for energy efficiency, it shall — as regards the Union's target for renewable energy — and may — as regards the other Energy Union objectives — issue recommendations to Member States whose contributions it deems insufficient to increase their ambition in order to ensure a sufficient level of collective ambition.

2. Where a gap between the Union's 2030 target and the collective contributions of Member States occurs in the area of renewable energy, the Commission shall base its assessment on the formula set out in Annex II which is based on the objective criteria listed in point (e)(i) to (v) of the first subparagraph of Article 5(1), whilst having due regard to relevant circumstances affecting renewable energy deployment as indicated by the Member State in accordance with the second subparagraph of Article 5(1). Where a gap between the Union's 2030 target and the sum of the national contributions occurs in the area of energy efficiency, the Commission shall, in particular, evaluate the relevant circumstances listed in Article 6(2), information provided by Member States in their integrated national energy and climate plans, results from modelling exercises in relation to future trends in energy consumption and other complementary analysis as appropriate.

Without prejudice to the other provisions of this Article, and for the sole purpose of assessing whether a gap between the Union's 2030 target and the collective contributions of Member States occurs, the Commission shall, in its assessment, assume a national contribution of the Member States which did not submit their draft integrated national energy and climate plans in accordance with Article 9(1). In its assumption, in the area of renewable energy, the Commission shall take into account the Member State's national binding target for 2020 as set out in Annex I to Directive (EU) 2018/2001, results from modelling exercises on renewable energy development and the results from the formula set out in Annex II to this Regulation. In the area of energy efficiency, it shall take into account modelling exercises in relation to future trends in energy consumption and other complementary analysis as appropriate.

In its assessment of the renewable energy contributions, based on the formula set out in Annex II, the Commission shall take into consideration any potential negative impacts on the security of supply and grid stability in small or isolated energy systems or in Member States' systems where there may be significant implications due to the change of synchronous area. In its assessment of the energy efficiency contributions, the Commission shall take into consideration the potential impact on electricity system operation and grid stability in Member States where there may be significant implications due to the change of synchronous area.

3. Where, on the basis of its assessment of the integrated national energy and climate plans and their updates pursuant to Article 14, the Commission concludes that the objectives, targets and contributions of the integrated national energy and climate plans or their updates are insufficient for the collective achievement of the Energy Union objectives and, in particular, for the first ten-year period, for the Union's 2030 targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency, it shall propose measures and exercise its powers at Union level in order to ensure the collective achievement of those objectives and targets. With regard to renewable energy, such measures shall take into consideration the level of ambition of contributions to the Union's 2030 target by Member States set out in the integrated national energy and climate plans and their updates.