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1. Sectors and subsectors in relation to which the product resulting from multiplying their intensity of trade with third countries, defined as the ratio between the total value of exports to third countries plus the value of imports from third countries and the total market size for the European Economic Area (annual turnover plus total imports from third countries), by their emission intensity, measured in kgCO2, divided by their gross value added (in euros), exceeds 0,2, shall be deemed to be at risk of carbon leakage. Such sectors and subsectors shall be allocated allowances free of charge for the period until 2030 at 100 % of the quantity determined pursuant to Article 10a.

2. Sectors and subsectors in relation to which the product resulting from multiplying their intensity of trade with third countries by their emission intensity exceeds 0,15 may be included in the group referred to in paragraph 1, using data for the years from 2014 to 2016, on the basis of a qualitative assessment and of the following criteria:

(a) the extent to which it is possible for individual installations in the sector or subsector concerned to reduce emission levels or electricity consumption;

(b) current and projected market characteristics, including, where relevant, any common reference price;

(c) profit margins as a potential indicator of long-run investment or relocation decisions, taking into account changes in costs of production relating to emission reductions.

3. Sectors and subsectors that do not exceed the threshold referred to in paragraph 1, but have an emission intensity measured in kgCO2, divided by their gross value added (in euros), which exceeds 1,5, shall also be assessed at a 4-digit level (NACE-4 code). The Commission shall make the results of that assessment public.

Within three months of the publication referred to in the first subparagraph, the sectors and subsectors referred to in that subparagraph may apply to the Commission for either a qualitative assessment of their carbon leakage exposure at a 4-digit level (NACE-4 code) or an assessment on the basis of the classification of goods used for statistics on industrial production in the Union at an 8-digit level (Prodcom). To that end, sectors and subsectors shall submit duly substantiated, complete and independently verified data to enable the Commission to carry out the assessment together with the application. Where a sector or subsector chooses to be assessed at a 4-digit level (NACE-4 code), it may be included in the group referred to in paragraph 1 on the basis of the criteria referred to in points (a), (b) and (c) of paragraph 2. Where a sector or subsector chooses to be assessed at an 8-digit level (Prodcom), it shall be included in the group referred to in paragraph 1 provided that, at that level, the threshold of 0,2 referred to in paragraph 1 is exceeded.

Sectors and subsectors for which free allocation is calculated on the basis of the benchmark values referred to in the fourth subparagraph of Article 10a(2) may also request to be assessed in accordance with the third subparagraph of this paragraph.

By way of derogation from paragraphs 1 and 2, a Member State may request, by 30 June 2018, that a sector or subsector listed in the Annex to Commission Decision 2014/746/EU () in respect of classifications at a 6-digit or an 8-digit level (Prodcom) be considered to be included in the group referred to in paragraph 1. Any such request shall only be considered where the requesting Member State establishes that the application of that derogation is justified on the basis of duly substantiated, complete, verified and audited data for the five most recent years provided by the sector or subsector concerned, and includes all relevant information with its request. On the basis of those data, the sector or subsector concerned shall be included in respect of those classifications where, within a heterogeneous 4-digit level (NACE-4 code), it is shown that it has a substantially higher trade and emission intensity at a 6-digit or an 8-digit level (Prodcom), exceeding the threshold set out in paragraph 1.

4. Other sectors and subsectors are considered to be able to pass on more of the costs of allowances in product prices, and shall be allocated allowances free of charge at 30 % of the quantity determined pursuant to Article 10a. Unless otherwise decided in the review pursuant to Article 30, free allocations to other sectors and subsectors, except district heating, shall decrease by equal amounts after 2026 so as to reach a level of no free allocation in 2030.

In a Member State where, on average in the years from 2014 to 2018, its share of emissions from district heating of the Union total of such emissions, divided by that Member State’s share of GDP of the Union’s total GDP, is greater than five, an additional free allocation of 30 % of the quantity determined pursuant to Article 10a shall be given to district heating for the period from 2026 to 2030, provided that an investment volume equivalent to the value of that additional free allocation is invested to significantly reduce emissions before 2030 in accordance with climate-neutrality plans referred to in the third subparagraph of this paragraph and that the achievement of the targets and milestones referred to in point (b) of that subparagraph is confirmed by the verification carried out in accordance with the fourth subparagraph of this paragraph.

By 1 May 2024, operators of district heating shall establish a climate-neutrality plan for the installations for which they apply for additional free allocation in accordance with the second subparagraph of this paragraph. That plan shall be consistent with the climate-neutrality objective set out in Article 2(1) of Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 and shall set out:

(a) measures and investments to reach climate neutrality by 2050 at installation or company level, excluding the use of carbon offset credits;

(b) intermediate targets and milestones to measure, by 31 December 2025 and by 31 December of each fifth year thereafter, progress made towards reaching climate neutrality as set out in point (a) of this subparagraph;

(c) an estimate of the impact of each of the measures and investments referred to in point (a) of this subparagraph as regards the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

The achievement of the targets and milestones referred to in the third subparagraph, point (b), of this paragraph, shall be verified in respect of the period until 31 December 2025 and in respect of each period ending 31 December of each fifth year thereafter, in accordance with the verification and accreditation procedures provided for in Article 15. No free allowances beyond the amount referred to in the first subparagraph of this paragraph shall be allocated if the achievement of the intermediate targets and milestones has not been verified in respect of the period until the end of 2025 or in respect of the period from 2026 to 2030. The Commission shall adopt implementing acts to specify the minimal content of the information referred to in the third subparagraph, points (a), (b) and (c), of this paragraph, and the format of the climate-neutrality plans referred to in that subparagraph and in Article 10a(1), fifth subparagraph. The Commission shall seek synergies with similar plans as provided for in Union law. Those implementing acts shall be adopted in accordance with the examination procedure referred to in Article 22a(2).

5. The Commission is empowered to adopt, by 31 December 2019, delegated acts in accordance with Article 23 to supplement this Directive concerning the determination of sectors and subsectors deemed at risk of carbon leakage, as referred to in paragraphs 1, 2 and 3 of this Article, for activities at a 4-digit level (NACE-4 code) as far as paragraph 1 of this Article is concerned, based on data for the three most recent calendar years available.