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1. Following the submission of a reasoned request as referred to in Article 2, the Commission, in close cooperation with the requesting Member State and in consultation with relevant Union agencies and international organisations, in particular UNHCR and IOM, shall expeditiously assess the situation and, where the conditions set out in Article 1 are met, adopt an implementing decision as referred to in paragraph 8 of this Article.

2. The Commission may also adopt a recommendation on the application of an expedited procedure for granting international protection to certain categories of applicants as referred to in Article 14.

3. The Commission shall immediately notify the European Parliament, the Council and the Member States that it is undertaking an assessment as referred to in paragraph 1.

4. When assessing whether the Member State is facing a situation of instrumentalisation as referred to in Article 1(4), point (b), of this Regulation, the Commission shall assess inter alia the following:

(a) whether a third country or a hostile non-state actor is facilitating the movement of third-country nationals or stateless persons into the Union;

(b) whether the information provided by the Member State adequately demonstrates that any actions falling under point (a) have the aim of destabilising the Union or the Member State concerned;

(c) whether there is an unexpected significant increase in the caseload of applications for international protection at the external borders or in the Member State concerned compared to the average number of applications;

(d) whether the response to the implications of the situation of instrumentalisation on the migration and asylum system of the Member State concerned cannot be sufficiently addressed by means of the measures contained in the Toolbox in accordance with Article 6(3) of Regulation (EU)2024/1351.

5. The Commission shall determine whether the conditions with regard to the situation faced by the Member State as set out in Article 1 are met, taking into account the reasoned request as referred to in Article 2, and in the light of the information provided and the indicators relating to the Member State concerned referred to in Article 9 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1351. The Commission shall assess the information provided in the reasoned request against the situation in the Member State concerned during the preceding two months and as compared to the overall situation in the Union.

6. The Commission shall determine in particular:

(a) whether the requesting Member State’s asylum, reception, including child-protection services, or migration system, although well-prepared, and notwithstanding the measures already taken, has become non-functional as a result of a situation of mass arrivals of third-country nationals or stateless persons rendering that Member State unable to address the situation and whether there might be serious consequences for the functioning of the Common European Asylum System;

(b) whether the Member State is faced with a situation of instrumentalisation as referred to in Article 1(4), point (b), to be addressed with the necessary and proportionate use of the measures set out in this Regulation;

(c) whether the Member State is faced with abnormal and unforeseeable circumstances outside its control, the consequences of which could not be avoided notwithstanding of the exercise of all due care, and how such situation of force majeure prevents it from fulfilling its obligations set out in Article 27, Article 51(2) and Article 60(1) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1348 and in Articles 39, 40, 41 and 46 of the Regulation (EU) 2024/1351.

7. When adopting an implementing decision as referred to in paragraph 8 of this Article, the Commission shall indicate why the response to the situation of instrumentalisation cannot be sufficiently addressed by means of the measures set out in the Toolbox in accordance with Article 6(3) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1351.

8. Where the Commission determines pursuant to paragraph 5 of this Article that the assessment referred to in paragraph 1 demonstrates the existence of the conditions set out in Article 1, taking into account the reasoned request as referred to in Article 2, and in the light of the information provided and the indicators relating to the Member State concerned referred to in Article 9 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1351, the Commission shall adopt, without delay and in any case no later than two weeks from the submission of the reasoned request referred to in Article 2 of this Regulation, an implementing decision determining whether the requesting Member State is in a situation of crisis referred to in Article 1(4), point (a) or (b), of this Regulation, or force majeure. The Commission shall transmit the implementing decision to the European Parliament and the Council.