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1. By 31 October 2021 and every two years thereafter, the Commission shall assess, in particular on the basis of the integrated national energy and climate progress reports, of other information reported under this Regulation, of the indicators and of European statistics and data where available:

(a) the progress made at Union level towards meeting the objectives of the Energy Union, including for the first ten-year period the Union's 2030 targets for energy and climate, in particular for the purpose of avoiding any gaps to the Union's 2030 targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency;

(b) the progress made by each Member State towards meeting its objectives, including progress towards the Union’s climate-neutrality objective set out in Article 2(1) of Regulation (EU) 2021/1119, targets and contributions and implementing the policies and measures set out in its integrated national energy and climate plan;

(c) the overall impact of aviation on the global climate, including through non-CO2 emissions or effects, based on the emission data provided by Member States pursuant to Article 26, and improve that assessment by reference to scientific advancements and air traffic data, as appropriate;

(d) the overall impact of the policies and measures of the integrated national energy and climate plans on the operation of the Union climate and energy policy measures;

(e) the overall impact of the policies and measures included in the integrated national energy and climate plans on the operation of the European Union's emission trading system (EU ETS) and on the supply-demand balance of allowances in the European carbon market.

2. In the area of renewable energy, as part of its assessment referred to in paragraph 1, the Commission shall assess the progress made in the share of energy from renewable sources in the Union’s gross final consumption of energy on the basis of an indicative Union trajectory that starts from 20 % in 2020, reaches reference points of at least 18 % in 2022, 43 % in 2025 and 65 % in 2027 of the total increase in the share of energy from renewable sources between the Union’s 2020 renewable energy target and the Union’s 2030 renewable energy target, and reaches the Union’s binding target for renewable energy for 2030 set in Article 3(1) of Directive (EU) 2018/2001.

3. In the area of energy efficiency, as part of its assessment referred to in paragraph 1, the Commission shall assess progress towards collectively achieving a maximum energy consumption at Union level of 1 128 Mtoe of primary energy and 846 Mtoe of final energy in 2030 in accordance with Article 3(5) of Directive 2012/27/EU. In carrying out its assessment, the Commission shall take the following steps:

(a) consider whether the Union's milestone of no more than 1 483 Mtoe of primary energy and no more than 1 086 Mtoe of final energy in 2020 is achieved;

(b) assess whether Member States' progress indicates that the Union as a whole is on track towards the level of energy consumption in 2030 as referred to in the first subparagraph, taking into account the assessment of information provided by Member States in their integrated national energy and climate progress reports;

(c) use results from modelling exercises in relation to future trends in energy consumption at Union level and national level and use other complementary analysis;

(d) take due account of relevant circumstances affecting primary and final energy consumption indicated by the Member States in their integrated national energy and climate plans, in accordance with Article 6(2).

4. In the area of the internal energy market, as part of its assessment referred to in paragraph 1, the Commission shall assess the progress made towards the level of electricity interconnectivity that the Member State aims for in 2030.

5. By 31 October 2021 and every year thereafter, the Commission shall assess, in particular on the basis of the information reported pursuant to this Regulation, whether the Union and its Member States have made sufficient progress towards meeting the following requirements:

(a) commitments under Article 4 of the UNFCCC and under Article 3 of the Paris Agreement as set out in decisions adopted by the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, or by the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement;

(b) obligations set out in Article 4 of Regulation (EU) 2018/842 and in Article 4 of Regulation (EU) 2018/841;

(c) the objectives set out in the integrated national energy and climate plan with a view to achieving the Energy Union objectives and for the first ten-year period with a view to fulfilling the 2030 targets for energy and climate.

6. In its assessment the Commission should take into consideration the latest country-specific recommendations issued in the context of the European Semester.

7. The Commission shall report on its assessment in accordance with this Article as part of the State of the Energy Union report referred to in Article 35.